The Remaining Eight US Open Ranking Scenarios [Poll]

12 09 2009

Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Juan Martin del Potro, Rafael Nadal

Crunching post-tournament tennis rankings (well, the top 5, at least) once the semifinals of a Grand Slam tournament have been determined is somewhat of a ritual for me. It’s been ages since I’ve posted, so I thought sharing the projection results on the ole’ blog would make a for an easy Saturday afternoon time-killer.

After Rafa Nadal speed-dialed Fernando Gonzalez off the court in today’s rain-delayed (don’t even get me started on the combination of horrible scheduling and tough luck Nadal was dealt in this year’s Open) quarterfinal, we’ve got our final four: Roger Federer v. Novak Djokovic and Nadal v. Juan Martin del Potro.

There are a few guaranteed outcomes once the US Open men’s champion is crowned on Monday, regardless of who hoists the trophy:

There is one ranking outcome that depends on how the semis play out, and the pressure to bring it about lands on Novak Djokovic’s lap. Nole can get his career-high No. 3 ranking back from Andy Murray, but he MUST win the tournament.

Projections and poll after the jump!

Scenario A: Federer d. Nadal

  1. Federer – 12040
  2. Nadal – 9325
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7480
  5. Del Potro – 5545
  6. Roddick – 5310

Scenario B: Federer d. Del Potro

  1. Federer – 12040
  2. Nadal – 8845
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7480
  5. Del Potro – 6025

This is the scenario I imagine Federer wants most. It puts the most distance in points between him and Nadal. Any chance of Rafa overtaking Roger as the year-end No. 1 would take a Hurculean effort on Nadal’s part—in conjunction with major stumbles on Federer’s—in the season’s final tournaments.

Scenario C: Nadal d. Federer

  1. Federer – 11240
  2. Nadal – 10125
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7480
  5. Del Potro – 5545

Scenario D: Nadal d. Djokovic

  1. Federer – 10760
  2. Nadal – 10125
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7960
  5. Del Potro – 5545

Conversely, this is the best scenario for Nadal. Rafa comes within striking distance of the No. 1 ranking and could foreseeably take it with a few solid tournament performances.

Scenario E: Djokovic d. Nadal

  1. Federer – 10760
  2. Nadal – 9325
  3. Djokovic – 8760
  4. Murray – 8390
  5. Del Potro – 5545

Scenario F: Djokovic d. Del Potro

  1. Federer – 10760
  2. Nadal – 8845
  3. Djokovic – 8760
  4. Murray – 8390
  5. Del Potro – 6025

Should this scenario play out, Djokovic not only regains No. 3, but also closes in on the No. 2 ranking by a mere 85 points. No pressure, though.

Scenario G: Del Potro d. Federer

  1. Federer – 11240
  2. Nadal – 8845
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7480
  5. Del Potro – 6845

Scenario H: Del Potro d. Djokovic

  1. Federer – 10760
  2. Nadal – 8845
  3. Murray – 8390
  4. Djokovic – 7960
  5. Del Potro – 6845

Personally, I’m rooting for scenario D, but what about you? Poll it up with your favorite scenario.

Here’s to an exciting final four, irregardless of outcome.

P.S. For anyone who wants to check my work, here’s the original figures I drew up:
Fed (F): 12040 » 11240
Fed (S): 12040 » 10760
Rafa (W): 9025 » 10125
Rafa (F): 9025 » 9325
Rafa (S): 9025 » 8845
Nole (W): 7660 » 8760
Murray (R16): 9610 » 8390
Nole (F): 7660 » 7960
Nole (S): 7660 » 7480
Delpo (W): 5325 » 6845
Delpo (F): 5325 » 6025
Delpo (S): 5325 » 5545
ARod (R32): 5720 » 5310

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2 responses

12 09 2009
kefuoe

I love this kind of stuff. Thanks for laying all out so clearly.

12 09 2009
Joe

I’m a geek about the rankings too—especially since this year could be a tight sprint to the year-end No. 1. I figured posting the numbers I crunched could save on other fans having to do it.

Or they could have just waited until Tuesday like a normal person. Obviously I couldn’t!

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